NZX chief executive Mark Weldon foresees a great leap forward for the economy as a result of the retirement savings goldmine. Photo / Mark Mitchell
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| Wayne Rooney | by www.nzherald.co.nz. All rights reserved. | 25.05 | 18:30 |
Apart from funding New Zealanders' retirement income, this will propel the nation's economic performance skyward.
With what NZX chief executive Mark Weldon describes as "a wall of cash" generated by KiwiSaver looking for an investment home and a favourable new tax environment, "everything is lined up" for a great leap forward for New Zealand's markets and economy.
"If it doesn't happen, it will be one of the great mysteries of life," Weldon says.
Although it is a less bold scheme than Australia's compulsory superannuation regime, which has accumulated a trillion dollars in 15 years, KiwiSaver in its new, improved form should attract about $75 billion in funds by 2028, according to Treasury estimates.
The same year, the NZ Super Fund is expected to have grown to about $160 billion, contributions will cease and it will begin paying out to help to fund universal superannuation.
That $235 billion represents a big improvement on the $56 billion in retirement savings New Zealanders hold today, not including the $12.8 billion now in the NZ Super Fund.
Treasury estimates that 50 per cent of working-age New Zealanders will be participating in KiwiSaver after 10 years. Those forecasts are based on the impact of the tax incentives and compulsory employer contributions announced by Finance Minister Michael Cullen in last week's Budget, which have immensely improved the workplace savings scheme's appeal.
Many in the funds management industry, which will invest the money on behalf of New Zealanders, believe KiwiSaver is now so attractive that the take-up rate will exceed that estimate.
Either way, it won't be enough to see New Zealand's retirement savings catch up to those in Australia, where the compulsory workplace savings were introduced 15 years ago.
Mark Brighouse is chief investment officer for Arcus, which manages investments for international fund manager AXA, one of the default KiwiSaver providers.
He says the level of employee, Government and maximum employer contributions under KiwiSaver is roughly equal to the level of contributions under Australia's regime.
"We're really going down the same path as Australia, but considerably later." But the voluntary aspect of KiwiSaver means New Zealand's savings are likely to grow at a slower pace.
Nevertheless, comparisons with Australia can illustrate what's at stake.
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